2. CLIMATE SECURITY: Kyoto the starting point of global environmental conservation
05/23/2007
・Constrain the average rise in global temperature by 2 or lower degrees.
・Set up an energy-saving resource-conservation social model in Japan and popularize it around the world.
・Make environmentally friendly businesses more attractive to encourage the United States and China to help prevent global warming.
It's early May in Kyoto and the Aoi Festival is drawing near. The national leaders visiting Japan are driven through major streets in "eco cars," vehicles that do not use gasoline. The fresh green colors of spring are in evidence everywhere. The scene is the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development commemorating the 10th anniversary of the Kyoto Protocol, which took effect in 2005.
Keeping such an image in mind for 2015, The Asahi Shimbun wishes to propose putting the prevention of global warming at the center of this country's national strategy.
Having expressed deep remorse for its actions in World War II that ended following the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan has walked the path of peace ever since. Hiroshima was the starting point for postwar Japan. Similarly, Japan should make the Kyoto Protocol its starting point for the 21st century, and for global environmental conservation efforts over the century ahead.
After the end of the Cold War, the global environment became a hot topic in international politics. Today we even have the ｅxpression! "climate security." Why climate security?
According to the committee report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, whose members are scientists from around the world, if the global economy maintains high economic growth that depends on oil and other fossil fuels, average global temperatures will rise by about 4 degrees by the end of this century from the level at the end of the 20th century.
What will happen if there is a 4-degree increase?
Serious water shortages would occur in many areas of the world and crop production will decline. More than 40 percent of species will go extinct. Ecosystems will be destroyed, the map of the distribution of infectious diseases will change, and there will be higher risks of catastrophic changes beyond our imagination.
When calculated in monetary terms, the damage will be huge. The Stern Report issued by the British government estimates that with a rise of 5 to 6 degrees in temperature, the global gross domestic product would drop by an average of 5 to 10 percent. Various disparities and conflicts will become more acute, and the whole world may be thrown into chaos.
Tremendous threats are close at hand. How can we defend people's safety and protect our children and grandchildren from these threats? That is a major security issue, just like war and nuclear weapons.
* * *
The Kyoto Protocol will enter its target period in 2008, during which it obliges industrialized nations to achieve reduction goals for carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions. However, the accord does not include the United States, the world's largest polluter that accounted for 23 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions in 2003. In addition, China, the second-largest polluter at 16 percent, and India at 4 percent, are exempt from emissions reductions because they are ranked as developing nations.
When the first stage of the Kyoto Protocol is completed in 2012, it has to immediately go on to a succeeding framework. This is often called "Post Kyoto." Japan should play a leading role in efforts to create a more effective framework than was attained in the first stage.
To play that role, Japan must fulfill its own responsibility to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 6 percent from the 1990 level. Then, it should reach out to the United States and get it to join in the efforts. Momentum for countermeasures against global warming is mounting at the state level and in Congress. Against the background of this internal pressure, Japan should urge the United States to return to the accord. Then Japan should encourage China, India, and other countries to assume obligations to reduce emissions.
Today, a low-carbon movement that aims not to emit CO2 is starting to accrue great economic value around the world. If emissions-control measures take more effect in each country and emissions trading takes root, having energy conservation and other technologies that slash emissions would become an import!ant pillar in supporting economic competitiveness.
For China and India that aim to become next-generation economic powers, it would be essential to be competitive in moving away from carbon emissions. It may be a heavy burden to have the responsibility to reduce emissions thrust upon them; however, it would benefit them in the long run. This is where Japan's diplomatic capabilities and persuasiveness can be put to the test.
Even after 2013, the spirit of the Kyoto Protocol should be continuously nurtured to develop a more detailed framework. Meetings should be held in Kyoto, and the "Kyoto" brand should be utilized as the focus for international relations on environmental issues. Japan should start by strengthening unity among industrialized nations at the Group of Eight summit to be held in Toyako, Hokkaido, in 2008.
* * *
Japan should also set a target to limit temperature rise to "within 2 degrees" from 20th-century levels.
The European Union has already established a goal to constrain temperature increases to up to 2 degrees from pre-industrial times (about 1.4 degrees from the 1990 level). Our proposal of "within 2 degrees" is not an unrealistic figure.
To achieve that goal, people will have to make changes to their lifestyles in accordance with a "low-carbon" policy. Despite likely differences in measures between industrialized nations and developing countries, it basically entails a transition from heavy resource consumption to a conservation model. Japan should use its leading energy conservation and natural energy technologies to draw up a blueprint and execute it as an example for the rest of the world.
Energy conservation also reduces expenses. Solar and wind power generation are more suited to countries with large territories and will certainly draw attention from countries such as China and India. Japan must not only sell its technologies but also promote the spread of their use while making the most of official development assistance.
It is also import!ant to support the movement away from carbon emissions using market forces. The EU leads in this respect. Using an emissions rights trade system, it allocates emissions quotas to power plants, ironworks, and other facilities, and allows them to trade their rights. Similar movements are under way in some states in the United States.
A society in which such a movement away from carbon emissions earns money should be established, and such businesses must be promoted. Japan should follow the global trend and promote the development of a resource-conservation society and an emissions quota trading system. It should also encourage China, India, and other developing nations to join the effort. If the United States sees immense business opportunities there, it would come forward on its own to join the accord.
Climate security over several centuries requires diplomatic capabilities to change values on a global scale.
Japan should take the lead in this endeavor.(IHT/Asahi: May 23,2007)
05/23/2007
・Constrain the average rise in global temperature by 2 or lower degrees.
・Set up an energy-saving resource-conservation social model in Japan and popularize it around the world.
・Make environmentally friendly businesses more attractive to encourage the United States and China to help prevent global warming.
It's early May in Kyoto and the Aoi Festival is drawing near. The national leaders visiting Japan are driven through major streets in "eco cars," vehicles that do not use gasoline. The fresh green colors of spring are in evidence everywhere. The scene is the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development commemorating the 10th anniversary of the Kyoto Protocol, which took effect in 2005.
Keeping such an image in mind for 2015, The Asahi Shimbun wishes to propose putting the prevention of global warming at the center of this country's national strategy.
Having expressed deep remorse for its actions in World War II that ended following the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan has walked the path of peace ever since. Hiroshima was the starting point for postwar Japan. Similarly, Japan should make the Kyoto Protocol its starting point for the 21st century, and for global environmental conservation efforts over the century ahead.
After the end of the Cold War, the global environment became a hot topic in international politics. Today we even have the ｅxpression! "climate security." Why climate security?
According to the committee report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, whose members are scientists from around the world, if the global economy maintains high economic growth that depends on oil and other fossil fuels, average global temperatures will rise by about 4 degrees by the end of this century from the level at the end of the 20th century.
What will happen if there is a 4-degree increase?
Serious water shortages would occur in many areas of the world and crop production will decline. More than 40 percent of species will go extinct. Ecosystems will be destroyed, the map of the distribution of infectious diseases will change, and there will be higher risks of catastrophic changes beyond our imagination.
When calculated in monetary terms, the damage will be huge. The Stern Report issued by the British government estimates that with a rise of 5 to 6 degrees in temperature, the global gross domestic product would drop by an average of 5 to 10 percent. Various disparities and conflicts will become more acute, and the whole world may be thrown into chaos.
Tremendous threats are close at hand. How can we defend people's safety and protect our children and grandchildren from these threats? That is a major security issue, just like war and nuclear weapons.
* * *
The Kyoto Protocol will enter its target period in 2008, during which it obliges industrialized nations to achieve reduction goals for carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions. However, the accord does not include the United States, the world's largest polluter that accounted for 23 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions in 2003. In addition, China, the second-largest polluter at 16 percent, and India at 4 percent, are exempt from emissions reductions because they are ranked as developing nations.
When the first stage of the Kyoto Protocol is completed in 2012, it has to immediately go on to a succeeding framework. This is often called "Post Kyoto." Japan should play a leading role in efforts to create a more effective framework than was attained in the first stage.
To play that role, Japan must fulfill its own responsibility to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 6 percent from the 1990 level. Then, it should reach out to the United States and get it to join in the efforts. Momentum for countermeasures against global warming is mounting at the state level and in Congress. Against the background of this internal pressure, Japan should urge the United States to return to the accord. Then Japan should encourage China, India, and other countries to assume obligations to reduce emissions.
Today, a low-carbon movement that aims not to emit CO2 is starting to accrue great economic value around the world. If emissions-control measures take more effect in each country and emissions trading takes root, having energy conservation and other technologies that slash emissions would become an import!ant pillar in supporting economic competitiveness.
For China and India that aim to become next-generation economic powers, it would be essential to be competitive in moving away from carbon emissions. It may be a heavy burden to have the responsibility to reduce emissions thrust upon them; however, it would benefit them in the long run. This is where Japan's diplomatic capabilities and persuasiveness can be put to the test.
Even after 2013, the spirit of the Kyoto Protocol should be continuously nurtured to develop a more detailed framework. Meetings should be held in Kyoto, and the "Kyoto" brand should be utilized as the focus for international relations on environmental issues. Japan should start by strengthening unity among industrialized nations at the Group of Eight summit to be held in Toyako, Hokkaido, in 2008.
* * *
Japan should also set a target to limit temperature rise to "within 2 degrees" from 20th-century levels.
The European Union has already established a goal to constrain temperature increases to up to 2 degrees from pre-industrial times (about 1.4 degrees from the 1990 level). Our proposal of "within 2 degrees" is not an unrealistic figure.
To achieve that goal, people will have to make changes to their lifestyles in accordance with a "low-carbon" policy. Despite likely differences in measures between industrialized nations and developing countries, it basically entails a transition from heavy resource consumption to a conservation model. Japan should use its leading energy conservation and natural energy technologies to draw up a blueprint and execute it as an example for the rest of the world.
Energy conservation also reduces expenses. Solar and wind power generation are more suited to countries with large territories and will certainly draw attention from countries such as China and India. Japan must not only sell its technologies but also promote the spread of their use while making the most of official development assistance.
It is also import!ant to support the movement away from carbon emissions using market forces. The EU leads in this respect. Using an emissions rights trade system, it allocates emissions quotas to power plants, ironworks, and other facilities, and allows them to trade their rights. Similar movements are under way in some states in the United States.
A society in which such a movement away from carbon emissions earns money should be established, and such businesses must be promoted. Japan should follow the global trend and promote the development of a resource-conservation society and an emissions quota trading system. It should also encourage China, India, and other developing nations to join the effort. If the United States sees immense business opportunities there, it would come forward on its own to join the accord.
Climate security over several centuries requires diplomatic capabilities to change values on a global scale.
Japan should take the lead in this endeavor.(IHT/Asahi: May 23,2007)